Citation Details
Title: Jaqua's call arrives early in MLS draft.(Sports)(Soccer: Chicago picks former South Eugene star with the third selection.)
Publication: The Register-Guard (Eugene, OR) (Newspaper)
Date: January 18, 2003
Publisher: The Register Guard
Page: D1
Distributed by Thomson Gale
There are many ways to find good bets in horse racing handicapping, but there are also a few bets that have a very poor strike rate and just don't pay. One of the tools I use to find horses that are live and ready to win are Special Workout Conditions*.
The special workout criteria I use point out horses that have posted an exceptional workout that meets several criteria. In most cases those horses are pretty good bets if other handicapping factors are used to weed out the phonies from the ponies. However, there is one time whenthose special workouts point out a bet that could probably best be described as a sucker bet.
I'm talking about maidens, horses who have never won a race. They often post several special workouts, but then fail to produce a score in the afternoon. Now please be aware that I am not talking about "morning glories," horses who have brilliant workouts in the morning, but then run poorly in the afternoon. Those horses make a career out of disappointing their backers. Maidens with the special workout criteria I use may well be good bets in the future, but they lack one key to making them a good wager.
The thing that they lack is racing experience. The workout times posted on most track websites and Equibase fail to give crucial information that would let you know if a maiden who had posted a special workout was indeed a good proposition, or too risky. The trouble is that you don't know if that horse worked in company or alone. If I know that a maiden has worked in company, alongside other horses and in simulated race conditions, then I might be willing to take a chance on it.
What happens with maidens who have posted those special workouts is that they get out of the gate good and flash early speed, but they cannot handle other horses challenging them and fade. This is particularly true of maidens who break from an inside post position. The ironic thing is that many of these maidens who post a bullet work or a special workout go off at short odds. It is hard to handicap maiden races and it seems that a maiden with a bullet work or a special workout will be an exceptional bet, but because they are usually untested and unschooled, they are poor bets and should be avoided. On the other hand, older horses who post a one of the special workouts are sometimes very good and over looked, making them excellent overlays.
* To learn what the special workouts are and how to use them, go to Willies Workouts http://williewins.homestead.com and get the truth.
Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, "Horse Racing is in my blood." To see all Bill's horse racing material go to http://williewins.homestead.com/handicappingstore.html Bill's handicapping store.
Euro Pro Ii Soccer Shinguard